TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIAN ADVISORY NO. 01Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Friday, 27 Sept 2024
Next update: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Saturday, 28 Sept 2024 |
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Current Status & Outlook | Tropical Depression JULIAN newly-formed to the east of Batanes and is moving south-southwest, potentially posing a serious threat to the island province this weekend. Its developing outer rainbands are already spreading across Northern Luzon.
48-hr Outlook: TD JULIAN is expected to move slowly in a clockwise direction over the next two days and could intensify into a Typhoon as it approaches the eastern part of the Balintang Channel by Sunday afternoon (Sept 29). The western and southern outer rainbands of JULIAN will bring cloudy skies with intermittent rain and thunderstorms to the Ilocos and Cagayan Valley regions throughout the weekend. With the arrival of the Dry-Phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) is no longer present, signaling its likely end as we transition towards the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan), which is expected to begin in November. |
Where is JULIAN? | As of 5:00 PM PhT today, Sept 27…0900 GMT:
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How strong is it? | Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph. |
Past Movement (06 hrs) | Southwest @ 13 kph, towards the Eastern Part of the Balintang Channel. |
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s) |
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What Philippine areas will be directly affected? | Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):
Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
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Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ |
+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates for more details. |
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** |
**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. |
Other Storm’s Meteorological Information |
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Disclaimer: Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information. |
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)
Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks
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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
:: None.
Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)