Tropical Storm JULIAN Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: TS JULIAN is expected to move west to west-northwest slowly over the next two days and could intensify into a Typhoon as it approaches the coastal waters of Batanes on Monday morning (Sept 30). The western and southern outer rainbands of JULIAN will bring cloudy skies with intermittent rain and thunderstorms to the Ilocos and Cagayan Valley regions including the northern portions of CAR today through Monday. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the North Philippine Sea (near 18.8°N 125.6°E)
• Distance 1:  365 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  395 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 3:  440 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan

• None

• Extreme Northern Luzon incl. Batanes, Ilocos Provinces, Kalinga, Apayao ~ beginning Saturday Evening through Monday (Sept 30).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving slowly on a westerly track as it becomes a Severe Tropical Storm, entering the eastern part of the Balintang Channel…about 295 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM Sept 29: 18.9°N 124.9°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it moves slowly WNW as it approaches the coastal waters of the Batanes Group of Islands…about 160 km ESE of Basco, Batanes  [2AM Sept 30: 19.9°N 123.4°E @ 150-185 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 3 Typhoon while passing very close to the Batanes Group of Islands, turns NNW to Northward…about 50 km ENE of Basco, Batanes  [2AM Oct 01: 20.7°N 122.4°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 425 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1000 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (745 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (780 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.