Typhoon JENNY (KOINU) Advisory No. 08

48-hr Outlook: TY JENNY is forecast to pass approx. 150-200 km to the north of Batanes Group later tonight (Oct 4). Its estimated wind speed is expected to diminish further to 160 kph (Cat 2) within the next 24 hours as dry-air entrainment and increasing upper-level winds aka. Wind shear continues to impact the typhoon. Then, it will pass over or very close to Orchid Island early Thursday morning (Oct 5), and make landfall over the Southern Tip of Taiwan around Thursday mid-morning.  JENNY will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday evening as a minimal Typhoon (Cat 1).  During this outlook, the southern inner rainbands of JENNY will be spreading across the Batanes Group of Islands where Tropical Storm-Force Winds of 75-100 kph will be felt beginning today until Thursday morning (Oct 05).

Meanwhile, the presence of TY JENNY’s Trough (aka. Extension) and the weakening Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring overcast skies with isolated to scattered to at times occasional rain showers and severe thunderstorms across Northern & Central Luzon incl. NCR, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, & Western Visayas today through Thursday (Oct 05). It will be more frequent during the afternoon or evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against flash floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northeastern edge of the Bashi Channel (near 21.8°N 124.4°E)
• Distance 1:  290 km east-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 2:  440 km north-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  880 km north-northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands ~ beginning Today until Thursday.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley including Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of greater than 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens further while moving westward across the northern edge of the Bashi Channel in Luzon Strait…about 120 km ESE of Taitung, Taiwan [8PM Oct 04: 22.2°N 122.1°E @ 160-195 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY EVENING: Weakens to a minimal Typhoon (Cat 1) as it exits the northwestern border of the PAR…moving slightly westward…about 75 km WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [8PM Oct 05: 22.4°N 119.6°E @ 120-150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while moving westward along the coastal waters of Shantou, China…about 200 km SSW of Xiamen, China [8PM Oct 06: 22.8°N 117.4°E @ 110-140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 600 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  959 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (765 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,120 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  175 km outward from the center.