Typhoon JENNY (KOINU) Advisory No. 04

48-hr Outlook: TY JENNY is forecast to maintain its northwest to west-northwest direction across the North Philippine Sea for the next 2 days while intensifying into a Category 3 Typhoon on Mon-Tue (Oct 02-03). During this outlook, the western outer rainbands of JENNY will start to spread across Extreme Northern Luzon particularly Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

Meanwhile, the presence of TY JENNY’s Trough (aka. Extension) and the weakening Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring isolated to scattered to at times occasional rain showers and severe thunderstorms across Luzon incl. NCR and Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, Western & Southern Mindanao today through Thursday (Oct 05). It will be more frequent during the afternoon or evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against flash floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southern edge of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.5°N 128.3°E)
• Distance 1:  650 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  695 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 3:  890 km east-northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a Category 3 Typhoon while moving WNW across the southwestern portion of the North Philippine Sea…about 435 km E of Basco, Batanes [8PM Oct 02: 19.8°N 1276.1°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY EVENING: Enters the eastern portion of the Bashi Channel while maintaining its WNW track towards the Southern Tip of Taiwan…about 235 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [8PM Oct 03: 21.2°N 124.1°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• WEDNESDAY EVENING: Passing just north of Northern Batanes as it prepares to make landfall over the Southern Tip of Taiwan…reaches its peak intensity of 205 km/hr)…about 150 km N of Itbayat, Batanes [8PM Oct 04: 22.1°N 121.6°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 600 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  977 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (740 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (950 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  50 km outward from the center.