Typhoon GORING (SAOLA) Advisory No. 05

48-hr Outlook: TY GORING is forecast to move south slowly near the coastal waters parallel to Isabela-Aurora Shoreline today until tomorrow, Sunday (Aug 27). Extreme Rapid Intensification (ERI) remains possible within the next couple of days, where 1-min. sustained winds are likely to reach more or less 200 km/hr (Category 3) while moving south to eastward along the open waters of the Philippine Sea, east of Northern Aurora on Sunday and Monday (Aug 28).

The presence of TY GORING + its Trough will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon this weekend through early next week.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southeastern portion of the Balintang Channel (near 18.8°N 123.3°E)
• Distance 1:  125 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  200 km east-southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  220 km north-northeast of Palanan, Isabela

• None

• Northern & Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela ~ Today through Sunday Afternoon (Aug 27). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Extreme Northern & Eastern Luzon.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Category 3 Typhoon while moving slowly S to SSE-ward, near the coastal waters of Eastern Isabela…about 100 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela [2AM Aug 27: 17.2°N 123.3°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its Category 3 classification as it starts to move counterclockwise on an E to ENE track across the Philippine Sea, away from the coastal waters of Eastern Isabela…about 235 km E of Palanan, Isabela [2AM Aug 28: 16.9°N 124.6°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further after completing its counterclockwise motion (NNE-N-NNW) across the Philippine Sea, well to the east of Northern Cagayan…about 300 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM Aug 29: 18.4°N 125.0°E @ 220-270 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 520 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 960 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (580 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (560 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  70 km outward from the center.