TYPHOON GORING (SAOLA) ADVISORY NO. 04

Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Friday, 25 Aug 2023
Next update: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Saturday, 26 Aug 2023
Current Status & Outlook GORING (SAOLA) has intensified into a Typhoon (TY) as it starts to drift southwestward along the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel.

48-hr Outlook: TY GORING is forecast to accelerate southward towards the coastal waters parallel to Isabela-Aurora Shoreline beginning tonight until Sunday (Aug 27). Extreme Rapid Intensification (ERI) remains possible within the next couple of days, where 1-min. sustained winds are likely to reach 200 km/hr (Category 3) while remaining over the open waters of the Philippine Sea.

The presence of TY GORING + its Trough will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon this weekend through early next week.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

Where is GORIO (SAOLA)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 25…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the northeastern edge of the Balintang Channel (near 19.5°N 123.7°E)
  • Distance 1:  205 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes
  • Distance 2:  200 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
  • Distance 3:  310 km north-northeast of Palanan, Isabela
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 150 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) Southwest @ 06 kph, across the East Balintang Channel.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • Northern & Eastern Cagayan ~ Tonight through Sunday Afternoon (Aug 27). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Extreme Northern & Eastern Luzon.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Category 2 Typhoon while accelerating southward east of  the coastal waters of Eastern Cagayan…about 160 km NE of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Aug 26: 17.9°N 123.6°E @ 175-215 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Undergoes Rapid Intensification (RI), becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves southeastward  just east of the coastal waters of Northern Aurora-Isabela Area – in response to a building High Pressure Steering Ridge off Hong Kong and a developing Monsoon Gyre to the east…about 195 km E of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Aug 27: 16.7°N 124.2°E @ 195-240 kph]Forecast ConfidenceHIGH
  • MONDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength as it starts to turn on a counter-clockwise motion (NE–N) across the Philippine Sea, east of the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan…about 315 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Aug 28: 17.7°N 125.3°E @ 195-240 kph]Forecast ConfidenceMEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 515 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 981 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (440 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (560 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  50 km outward from the center.
Disclaimer: Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

For more info visit: (http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=SAOLA)

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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)

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