Tropical Depression EMONG Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: TD EMONG is forecast to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) later today and will maintain its fast movement with a turn to the west-northwest across the Bashi Channel at a forward speed of 36 km/hr. It is expected to pass over the Batanes Group of Islands later this evening, and will exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early tomorrow morning (Jul 06).

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 97W has maintained its west-northwest track across the West Philippine Sea, away from the Philippines. At 5AM today, it was located about 510 km west of Subic Bay (14.9N 115.5E). The potential of becoming a Tropical Depression within the next 24 hours remains at MEDIUM (35-65% chance).

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the mid-northernmost portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.8°N 126.3°E)
• Distance 1: 444 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 496 km east of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 540 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the NW border of PAR as it strengthens into a 75-kph TS…about 171 km S of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2AM Jul 06: 21.1°N 120.1°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens rapidly into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves across Southern China…about 242 km W of Xiamen, China [2AM Jul 07: 24.6°N 115.7°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (655 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): n/a (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None