Typhoon EGAY (DOKSURI) Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: TY EGAY (DOKSURI) is forecast to undergo continued Rapid Intensification (RI) and could reach or break the Super Typhoon threshold of 240 kph (1-min avg) as it moves over warm oceanic heat content and very favorable upper-level atmospheric environment during the next 2 days. Its forecast track will turn more towards the Northwest, and will enter the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan on Tuesday evening (July 25), with forecast sustained winds of 230 kph.

The presence of TY EGAY (DOKSURI) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon today through Thursday (July 27).  Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected across these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.4°N 127.3°E)
• Distance 1:  485 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 2:  570 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3:  680 km east of Quezon City, NCR

• Over Babuyan Group of Islands on Wednesday morning (Jul 26), between 2 to 8 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of 70-80%.

• Catanduanes & Northeastern Camarines Sur (Partido District) – Today.
• Cagayan Valley – Beginning Tuesday until Wednesday or Thursday (Jul 26-27).
• Northern Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – Beginning Tuesday Evening until Wednesday or Thursday (Jul 26-27).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Cagayan – beginning Tuesday Afternoon.

• Inland Lakes, Coastal and Beachfront areas of Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY EVENING: Over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, intensifies into a Category 3 Typhoon, turns NW-ward…about 325 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes [8PM Jul 24: 16.5°N 125.8°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• TUESDAY EVENING: Strengthens to near-Super Typhoon (Category 4) as it passes along the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan…turns WNW along the Eastern Part of the Balintang Channel…about 105 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM Jul 25: 18.8°N 123.1°E @ 230-280 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly while passing very close to the west of Batanes or along the western portion of the Bashi Channel…starts to move NNW…about 70 km WSW of Itbayat, Batanes [8PM Jul 26: 20.6°N 121.2°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 972 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (925 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (880 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  205 km outward from the center.