Tropical Depression CRISING Advisory No. 05

This depression including its trough will continue to bring scattered to widespread rains with severe thunderstorms and squalls across most parts of Mindanao today.

24-hr Outlook: TD CRISING is forecast to move west-northwestward across Western Mindanao at an increased forward speed of 26 km/hr and will continue losing strength. It will traverse the provinces of Lanao, Southern Misamis Occidental and the northern part of Zamboanga Del Norte this afternoon. By late tonight through tomorrow morning (Sat), CRISING will emerge over the Sulu Sea as it weakens into an LPA, passing just south of Cagayancillo Island.

• Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of Lumba-Bayabao, Lanao Del Sur (near 7.7°N 124.6°E)
• Distance 1: 48 km southeast of Marawi City, Lanao Del Sur
• Distance 2: 68 km northeast of Cotabato City, Cotabato
• Distance 3: 75 km southwest of Malaybalay City, Bukidnon

• N/A (System’s over land)

• Some Portions of  Mindanao – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) while moving WNW across the Sulu Sea…about 137 km ESE of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM May 15: 9.4°N 119.9°E @ 35 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 100 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (250 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): n/a (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None