Tropical Storm AGATON Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: TS AGATON is forecast to drift slowly, West to WNW @ 5 kph across the southern portions of Eastern Samar through early tomorrow morning (Monday) while maintaining its strength.

Its rain circulation has expanded and is now affecting various portions of Visayas, Bicol Region, Northern Caraga, and Northern Mindanao.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the coastal waters of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (near 11.0°N 126.2°E)
• Distance 1: 52 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
• Distance 2: 138 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte
• Distance 3: 157 km east-southeast of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte

• Along the Southern Portions of Eastern Samar – with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Eastern & Central Visayas, Sorsogon, Albay, Masbate, Ticao Island including Dinagat & Siargao Island Group.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it drifts slowly overland across the Southern Part of Samar Province…about 26 km E of Tacloban City, Leyte [2AM Apr 11: 11.3°N 125.2°E @ 65 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Stalls very near Tacloban City as it starts to interacts with the large circulation of STS MALAKAS…about 37 km E of Tacloban City, Leyte [2AM Apr 12: 11.2°N 125.3°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates rapidly East to ENE-ward across the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea…exits the PAR. Completely assimilated into the southern circulation of STS MALAKAS…about 852 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Apr 13: 11.1°N 128.4°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 700 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 999 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (595 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Midget (<125 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —