Super Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: STY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to re-intensify back to to Category 5 status upon the completion of its ERC…and will turn more west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 20 km/hr, with winds increasing back to 260 km/hr.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.5°N 128.6°E)
• Distance 1: 522 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 754 km east of Baler, Aurora
• Distance 3: 757 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan

• None

• Extreme Northern Luzon – beginning Tomorrow Afternoon (Sept 10).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning Saturday Morning (Sept 11).

• Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – starting Tomorrow Morning until Saturday Evening. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns WNW as it regains Category 5 status while moving across the NW portion of the Central Philippines Sea…about 356 km E of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM Sept 10: 16.8°N 125.4°E @ 260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 4 STY as it traverses the Balintang Channel…passing along the Babuyan Island Group…about 111 km S of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 11: 19.5N 122.0°E @ 240 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the NW border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while passing very close to the SW Coast of Taiwan…weakens to a Category 3 TY…about 273 km NW of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 12: 22.1N 120.0°E @ 195 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 935 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (460 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 50 km outward from the center