Severe Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) Advisory No. 08

24-hr Outlook: STS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to weaken slightly and will track WNW-ward slowly at 12 km/hr through tomorrow morning. Later this evening, the storm will emerge along the mouth of Manila Bay and will pass very close to Bataan. By tomorrow morning, JOLINA will emerge over the West Philippine Sea as it moves closer to Scarborough Shoal.

Meanwhile, Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) has been tracking WSW across the Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours. At 11 AM today, the eye was located about 1,050 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (15.8N 131.8E), with 1-min sustained winds of 230 kph with higher gusts. This system is not yet a threat to any part of the country as it is forecast to move towards Extreme Northern Luzon-Taiwan Area within the next 3 days. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Over Taal Lake, Batangas (near 13.9°N 121.1°E)
• Distance 1: 28 km south-southeast of Tagaytay City, Batangas
• Distance 2: 67 km south of Metro Manila
• Distance 3: 136 km southeast of Olongapo City, Zambales

• Over Batangas – now occurring, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Mindoro, Marinduque & CaLaBaRZon – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Southern part of Metro Manila, Southern Bataan – Today.

• Batangas, Cavite, Bataan.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea as it moves WNW, approaching Scarborough Shoal…about 139 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales [8AM Sept 09: 15.9°N 119.0°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY MORNING: Re-intensifies into an STS as it exits the PAR…heading west-northwest towards Hainan, China…about 482 km W of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [8AM Sept 10: 16.1N 115.8°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (455 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 30 km outward from the center