Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) Advisory No. 06

24-hr Outlook: TS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to maintain its strength and will move northwestward at a decreased forward speed of 12 km/hr. By early morning tomorrow, JOLINA will move across Tayabas Bay and could make landfall over Marinduque before sunrise tomorrow. Then, a second landfall is likely over Batangas-Southern Quezon Area around noon time and will be in the vicinity of Tiaong, Quezon tomorrow afternoon.

Meanwhile, CHANTHU rapidly intensified into a Typhoon and has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), with local name “KIKO”.  At 7PM today, the eye was located about 1,379 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.3N 134.9E), with 1-min sustained winds of 120 kph with higher gusts. This system is not a threat to any part of the country as it is forecast to move towards Batanes-Taiwan Area within the next 5 days. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the Sibuyan Sea or just along the southern coast of Burias Island (near 12.7°N 123.1°E)
• Distance 1: 62 km west-northwest of Masbate City, Masbate
• Distance 2: 91 km east of Romblon
• Distance 3: 153 km east-southeast of Boac, Marinduque

• Over Marinduque – between 2 to 4 AM tomorrow morning, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Bicol Region – Tonight through Early Tomorrow Morning.
• Marinduque & CaLaBaRZon – Tonight through Tomorrow.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Over Tiaong, Quezon as it weakens further…approaching the National Capital Region on a NW to NNW track…about 64 km SSE of Metro Manila [2PM Sept 08: 14.0°N 121.3°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates out into the West Philippine Sea as it reintensifies…about 265 km WNW of Dagupan City [2PM Sept 09: 16.6°N 117.9°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies into an STS while outside of PAR…heading west towards Hainan, China…about 683 km W of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [2PM Sept 10: 17.1N 114.0°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (455 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None