Tropical Depression JOLINA Advisory No. 01

24-hr Outlook: TD JOLINA is forecast to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) late today and will move slowly northwestward near the coast of Eastern Samar at a forward speed of 11 km/hr. Forecast wind speeds by tomorrow morning will be at 65 km/hr (1-min avg) or even higher if the rapid intensification phase of JOLINA will continue.

Meanwhile, another Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) is likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 6 to 12 hours. At 11 AM today, it was located about 1,557 km East of Southern Luzon (13.8N 138.6E). This system is not yet a threat to any part of the country as it is forecast to move towards the Southern Islands of Japan.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southwesternmost portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.7°N 127.3°E)
• Distance 1: 176 km east-southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
• Distance 2: 167 km northeast of Siargao Island
• Distance 3: 466 km southeast of Virac, Catanduanes

• None

• Eastern Visayas – beginning tomorrow morning (Sept 07).
• Bicol Region – beginning tomorrow evening (Sept 07).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a TS as it moves northwestward near the coast of Eastern Samar…about 170 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar [8AM Sept 07: 12.3°N 126.2°E @ 65 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
  
• WEDNESDAY MORNING: Strengthens further to 85 km/hr as it passes close to the eastern shoreline of Catanduanes…about 97 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM Sept 08: 14.0°N 125.0°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• THURSDAY MORNING: Turns WNW-ward as it approaches the eastern coast of Aurora…about 145 km E of Baler, Aurora [8AM Sept 09: 15.5°N 122.9°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): n/a (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None