Tropical Storm CRISING Advisory No. 02

This storm will bring scattered to occasional rains with severe thunderstorms and gusty winds across Eastern, Central & Northern Mindanao particularly Davao Region and portions of Caraga Region today through tomorrow (Fri).

24-hr Outlook: TS CRISING is forecast to move west to west-northwestward across the coastal waters of Davao Oriental at a forward speed of 15 km/hr, while maintaining its strength prior in making landfall. After making landfall over the coastline of Davao Oriental early tomorrow morning, TS CRISING is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves across the landmass of Mindanao, and traverse Davao De Oro and Del Norte by mid-morning tomorrow, and shall be in the vicinity of Bukidnon by tomorrow afternoon.

• Location of Center/Eye: Approaching the coastal waters of Davao Oriental (near 7.4°N 127.5°E)
• Distance 1: 147 km east-northeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental
• Distance 2: 227 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
• Distance 3: 262 km east of Valencia City, Bukidnon

• Over Davao Oriental, between 12 to 3 AM Tomorrow (Friday, May 14) – with High Strike Probability of 85-95%.

• Eastern & Central Mindanao – beginning tonight.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a TD as it traverses Bukidnon, on its way to Lanao-Misamis Occidental Area…about 40 km S of Cagayan De Oro City, Misamis Oriental [2PM May 14: 8.1°N 124.7°E @ 65 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching Palawan as a minimal TD over the Sulu Sea, accelerating further to the WNW…about 113 km E of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM May 15: 9.8°N 119.8°E @ 45 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Just a decaying LPA over the West Philippine Sea, as it exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 448 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan  [2PM May 16: 10.9°N 114.8°E @ 35 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 225 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (360 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): n/a (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None