Tropical Storm AURING (DUJUAN) Advisory No. 03

24-hr Outlook: TS AURING (DUJUAN) is forecast to move westward slowly across the South Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 11 km/hr. This cyclone is expected to continue intensifying through tomorrow, Friday afternoon.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the mid-central part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 7.3°N 132.0°E)
• Distance 1: 636 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
• Distance 2: 673 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
• Distance 3: 722 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur

• Along Surigao Del Sur, between 12 to 2 AM Sunday, Feb 21 – with Low Strike Probability of 40%.

• CARAGA & DAVAO REGION – beginning Saturday Afternoon (Feb 20).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further while moving slowly Westward across the South Philippine Sea…about 416 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2PM Feb 19: 7.3°N 130.0°E @ 85 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while maintaining its westward movement across the South Philippine Sea, closer to the coastal areas of Eastern Mindanao…about 265 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2PM Feb 20: 7.4°N 128.6°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Turns WNW while traversing Bohol Sea, and approaching the southern part of Central Visayas as a weakened TS…about 44 km SSE of Tagbilaran City, Bohol  [2PM Feb 21: 9.3°N 124.0°E @ 75 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 550 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (590 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center