Tropical Depression AURING Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: TD AURING is forecast to move very slowly, west-northwestward across the South Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 08 km/hr. This cyclone could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the Southeastern Part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 6.8°N 132.6°E)
• Distance 1: 702 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
• Distance 2: 753 km east of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
• Distance 3: 790 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur

• Along Surigao Del Sur, between 12 to 2 AM Sunday, Feb 21 – with Low Strike Probability of 30-40%.

• CARAGA & DAVAO REGION – beginning Saturday Afternoon (Feb 20).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while moving slowly WNW to West over the South Philippine Sea…about 558 km E of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Feb 19: 7.5°N 131.3°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens further as it moves West to WNW across the South Philippine Sea…about 393 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2AM Feb 20: 7.2°N 129.8°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over the southern part of Surigao Del Sur while accelerating WNW towards NE Mindanao…about 23 km NNW of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur  [2AM Feb 21: 8.4°N 126.2°E @ 100 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 820 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (690 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center