Typhoon ULYSSES (VAMCO) Advisory No. 09

*At 2:00 AM today, the large eye has already made landfall over General Nakar in Northern Quezon, and will start traversing Central Luzon thereafter.

24-hr Outlook: TY ULYSSES (VAMCO) is forecast to turn westward with an increased forward speed of 25 km/hr, and could weaken slightly upon traversing the landmass of Central Luzon. The CORE (Eye + Eyewall) is expected to make another landfall Northern Quezon via General Nakar during the early hours of Thursday. Between 2 to 8 AM Thursday, the CORE will cross Central Luzon, passing over the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Northern Bataan, Southern Tarlac and Zambales. It will then emerge over the coastal areas of Zambales before noontime Thursday, and shall be in the vicinity of Scarborough Shoal on Thursday evening.

• Location of Center:  Over the Polillo Island Group.
• Coordinates: 14.9°N lat  122.1°E lon
• Distance 1: 51 km east-northeast of Infanta, Quezon
• Distance 2: 109 km east-northeast of Antipolo City, Rizal
• Distance 3: 118 km east-northeast of Metro Manila

• Landfall 2: Along General Nakar, Northern Quezon – between 2 to 3 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• REST OF LUZON including NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION (NCR) – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• NORTHERN QUEZON & SOUTHERN AURORA – beginning Tonight.
• NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, SOUTHERN PANGASINAN, ZAMBALES, BULACAN, LAGUNA, & METRO MANILA – Today

• Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Northern Samar, Bicol Region, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan – Today.
• Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Western Luzon (from Ilocos Norte down to Batangas – Beginning Tonight until Thursday (Nov 12).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY EVENING: Moving westward across the West Philippine Sea, passing across  Scarborough Shoal, weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon…about 306 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Nov 12: 15.2°N 117.3°E @ 120 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• FRIDAY EVENING: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while continuing moving west towards the South China Sea, re-intensifies further…about 776 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Nov 13: 15.2°N 112.8°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (745 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km from the center