Super Typhoon ROLLY (GONI) Advisory No. 07

*Similar in strength and track of Super Typhoon ROSING (ANGELA) which devastated the Bicol Region, Central & Southern Luzon in November 02-03, 1995. Please take full preparations & precautions.

The potential landfall area will be tomorrow morning, November 01, along Northern Catanduanes and the Northern Portions of Camarines Provinces  with a high strike probability of 90%. 

24-hr Outlook: STY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to weaken slightly (at Category 4 status) as it maintains its west-southwestward movement with an increased forward speed of 25 km/hr. The core (eye+eyewall) is expected to make landfall over Northern Catanduanes before sunrise tomorrow morning, and shall do another landfall over Partido District in Camarines Sur, passing over Caramoan-Lagonoy Area between 6-7 AM, and could be in the vicinity of Tinambac-San Miguel Bay Area between 7-8 AM tomorrow morning.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the middle part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.0°N 128.2°E)
• Distance 1: 445 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 540 km east-northeast of Siruma, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3: 561 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Landfall 1: Over Northern Catanduanes, between 4 to 6 AM tomorrow, Sunday (Nov 01) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.
• Landfall 2: Over Caramoan, Camarines Sur (Partido), between 6 to 8 AM tomorrow, Sunday (Nov 01) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

• Bicol Region – beginning late tonight or early Sunday morning (Nov 01)
• CaLaBaRZon, Marinduque, NCR, Parts of Central Luzon – beginning Sunday morning (Nov 01)

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Catanduanes & Camarines Provinces – beginning early Sunday morning (Nov 01)
• Quezon, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, NCR, Parts of Central Luzon – beginning Sunday morning or afternoon (Nov 01)

• Coastal & Inland Lakes, Bays of Bicol Region & Quezon – beginning tonight

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Tinambac, Camarines Sur, entering San Miguel Bay…weakens to a Category 4 Super Typhoon…about 31 km NE of Naga City, Camarines Sur [8AM Nov 01: 13.8°N 123.4°E @ 250 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM 
• MONDAY MORNING: Approaching  Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal or over the West Philippine Sea…downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon after traversing Southern Luzon and NCR…about 225 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales  [8AM Nov 02: 15.0°N 118.2°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
• TUESDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens gradually into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves rapidly west towards Vietnam…about 622 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Nov 03: 15.0°N 114.3°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 480 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 895 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (520 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (630 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 95 km from the center