Tropical Depression JULIAN Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: TD JULIAN is expected to move slowly in a clockwise direction over the next two days and could intensify into a Typhoon as it approaches the eastern part of the Balintang Channel by Sunday afternoon (Sept 29). The western and southern outer rainbands of JULIAN will bring cloudy skies with intermittent rain and thunderstorms to the Ilocos and Cagayan Valley regions throughout the weekend. 

With the arrival of the Dry-Phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) is no longer present, signaling its likely end as we transition towards the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan), which is expected to begin in November.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the North Philippine Sea (near 19.8°N 126.0°E)
• Distance 1:  425 km east of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2:  430 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  480 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan

• None

• Extreme Northern Luzon ~ beginning Saturday Afternoon through Monday (Sept 30).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Moving slowly on a westerly track as it becomes a Tropical Storm…about 365 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Sept 28: 18.7°N 125.6°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it NW to NNW across the eastern part of the Balintang Channel…about 235 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan  [2PM Sept 29: 19.3°N 124.2°E @ 120-150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerating NNW as it passes along the eastern part of the Bashi Channel…intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon…about 135 km E of Basco, Batanes  [2PM Sept 30: 20.7°N 123.3°E @ 175-215 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1002 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (755 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.