Typhoon JENNY (KOINU) Advisory No. 09

48-hr Outlook: TY JENNY is forecast to pass approx. 150 to 200 km to the north of Batanes Group late tonight. Its estimated wind speed is expected to regain further intensity on or before making landfall over the southern tip of Taiwan (or along Pingtung Province). The core of the typhoon will pass over or very close to Orchid Island early tomorrow morning (Oct 5), and make landfall over the Southern Tip of Taiwan around mid-morning tomorrow.  JENNY will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow evening as a weakening Typhoon (Cat 1).  Then, on Friday morning (Oct 6) it will be over the southernmost part of Taiwan Strait.  

Meanwhile, the presence of TY JENNY’s Outer Rainbands and the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring overcast skies with isolated to scattered to at times occasional rain showers and severe thunderstorms across Northern Luzon and the western sections of Central & Southern Luzon incl. NCR, Mindoro, & Calamian Group today until tomorrow. It will be more frequent during the afternoon or evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against flash floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southern edge of the East Taiwan Sea (near 22.1°N 123.2°E)
• Distance 1:  205 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 2:  420 km north-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  870 km north-northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands ~ Today until Tomorrow.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley including Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of greater than 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Category 2 Typhoon as it makes landfall over the Southern Tip of Taiwan, while moving westward…about 75 km S of Taitung, Taiwan [8AM Oct 05: 22.1°N 121.1°E @ 160-195 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens rapidly into a minimal Typhoon (Cat 1) after being affected by Taiwan’s landmass…already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving slowly westward…about 125 km W of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [8AM Oct 06: 22.4°N 119.1°E @ 120-150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 825 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  953 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (795 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,000 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  205 km outward from the center.