Typhoon JENNY (KOINU) Advisory No. 07

48-hr Outlook: TY JENNY is forecast to pass approx. 150-200 km north of Batanes Group tomorrow afternoon (Oct 4). Its estimated wind speed is expected to diminish further to 160-165 kph (Cat 2) within the next 12 to 36 hours as dry-air entrainment and increasing upper-level winds aka. Wind shear continues to affect the typhoon. Then, it will pass over or close to Orchid Island early tomorrow evening, before making landfall over Southern Taiwan by early Thursday morning.  By mid-morning Thursday (Oct 05), Jenny will then emerge along the coastal waters just south of Kaohsiung City as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).  During this outlook, the western & southern inner rainbands of JENNY will be spreading across the Batanes Group of Islands where Tropical Storm-Force Winds of 75-100 kph will be felt beginning Wednesday until early Thursday morning (Oct 05).

Meanwhile, the presence of TY JENNY’s Trough (aka. Extension) and the weakening Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring overcast skies with isolated to scattered to at times occasional rain showers and severe thunderstorms across Northern & Central Luzon incl. NCR, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, & Western Visayas today through Thursday (Oct 05). It will be more frequent during the afternoon or evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against flash floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the western edge of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.9°N 125.0°E)
• Distance 1:  315 km east of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2:  400 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  820 km north-northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands ~ beginning tomorrow, Wednesday.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley including Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of greater than 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Category 2 while turning WNW across the northern part of the Bashi Channel in Luzon Strait…about 165 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM Oct 04: 21.7°N 123.1°E @ 175-215 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY MORNING: Emerges over the SW coastal waters of Taiwan after making landfall over the southern tip of Pingtung, Taiwan…moving westward as it weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon…about 40 km SSE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [8AM Oct 05: 22.3°N 120.4°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY MORNING: Outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while moving westward, closer to the coastal waters of Shantou, China…about 225 km SSW of Xiamen, China [8AM Oct 06: 22.5°N 117.6°E @ 110-140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 600 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  949 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (660 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,120 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  240 km outward from the center.