Severe Tropical Storm JENNY (KOINU) Advisory No. 03

48-hr Outlook: STS JENNY is forecast to move in a northwest to west-northwest direction across the North Philippine Sea for the next 2 days while intensifying into a Category 2-Typhoon on Tuesday (Oct 03). During this outlook, JENNY is still far away from affecting any part of Extreme Northern Luzon.

Meanwhile, the presence of TD JENNY’s Trough (aka. Extension) and the weakening Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring isolated to scattered to at times occasional rain showers and severe thunderstorms across Central & Southern Luzon incl. NCR and Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Western Mindanao today through Wednesday (Oct 04). It will be more frequent during the afternoon or evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against flash floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern edge of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.3°N 129.4°E)
• Distance 1:  670 km northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  790 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3:  940 km east-northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Category 1 Typhoon while moving WNW across the southwestern portion of the North Philippine Sea…about 590 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM Oct 02: 19.1°N 127.7°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• TUESDAY MORNING: Reaches Category 2 status while over the western portion of the North Philippine Sea, maintains its WNW track…about 505 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM Oct 03: 20.4°N 125.5°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it approaches the northern part of Luzon Strait…about 2160 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM Oct 04: 21.5°N 123.2°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 600 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  991 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (685 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  30 km outward from the center.