Typhoon GORING (SAOLA) Advisory No. 08

48-hr Outlook: TY GORING is forecast to move east to northeast slowly, and  farther away from the coastal waters of Isabela within the next 12 to 24 hours. A temporary weakening trend of this typhoon is expected due to Upwelling and possible Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) within the next 2 days. By Tuesday afternoon, Goring is forecast to move NNW to NW and reintensifies back to near-Super Typhoon intensity with winds of  230 km/hr.

The presence of TY GORING will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon today through early next week.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms with gusty winds will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Near the coastal waters of Eastern Isabela  (near 16.4°N 123.1°E)
• Distance 1:  100 km southeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2:  200 km southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  300 km northeast of Metro Manila, NCR

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Isabela & Cagayan.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Category 3 Typhoon as it encounters upwelling and possible Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), while moving  East to Northward across the Philippine Sea, away from the coastal waters of Eastern Isabela…about 260 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Aug 28: 17.5°N 124.8°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerating towards the NNW to NW across the Philippine Sea, approaching Batanes Group. Reintensifies back to Category 4, at near-Super Typhoon class…about 230 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2PM Aug 29: 19.6°N 124.0°E @ 230-280 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Super Typhoon after completing its counterclockwise motion. Maintains its NW movement towards Batanes-Taiwan Area…about 45 km NW of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM Aug 30: 21.1°N 121.6°E @ 240-300 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 480 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 942 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (325 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (445 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  70 km outward from the center.