Tropical Storm GORING Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: TS GORING (SAOLA) is forecast to undergo an extraordinary motion, beginning with a slow southward drift for the next 24 hours and then, a sudden south to south-southeast track towards the coastal waters parallel to Isabela-Aurora Shorelines on Saturday (Aug 26) through Sunday. Extreme Rapid Intensification (ERI) is possible within the next couple of days, reaching Typhoon classification on Saturday evening with 1-min. sustained winds of 185 km/hr (Category 3).

The presence of TS GORING + its Trough will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon today and through Sunday (Aug 27).  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the eastern edge of the Bashi-Balintang Channel Area (near 20.2°N 124.4°E)
• Distance 1:  250 km east of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2:  305 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  415 km northeast of Palanan, Isabela

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a Category 1 Typhoon while drifting slowly southward across the eastern part of the Balintang Channel…about 250 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [8PM Aug 25: 19.8°N 124.3°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY EVENING: Undergoes Extreme Rapid Intensification (ERI), becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it starts to accelerate southward in response to a building High Pressure Steering Ridge off Hong Kong and a developing Monsoon Gyre to the east…about 185 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela [8PM Aug 26: 17.7°N 124.0°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SUNDAY EVENING: Continues to intensify as it starts to turn on a counter-clockwise loop across the Philippines Sea, east of the coastal waters of Northern Aurora…about 255 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela [8PM Aug 27: 16.4°N 124.7°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 550 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 994 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (490 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (560 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.