Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE) Advisory No. 03

24-hr Outlook: TS PAENG is expected to move west-northwest across the Central Philippine Sea, with a slow forward speed of 12 km/hr, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by tomorrow afternoon.

The storm’s Trough together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will continue to bring windy conditions (30-60 kph) across Northern & Eastern Luzon, becoming wet and rainy with severe thunderstorms & squally conditions across Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Visayas, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Northeastern & Eastern Mindanao tonight & tomorrow.  The risk of floods and landslides is currently at medium to high. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 12.1°N 129.7°E)
• Distance 1:  551 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar
• Distance 2: 620 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 3: 725 km east-southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Landfall 1:  Over Northern Catanduanes on Saturday morning (Oct 29), between 5 to 6 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 2:  Over Polillo Island Group on Saturday afternoon (Oct 29), between 2 to 4 PM ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
• Landfall 3:  Over Northern Quezon on Saturday evening (Oct 29), between 6 to 8 PM ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas ~ beginning tomorrow, Friday evening (Oct 28).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into an STS while moving WNW across the western part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 370 km E of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM Oct 28: 13.1°N 127.6°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) as it passes along the coastal waters of Camarines Norte, prepares to make landfall over Polillo Group…about 75 km NW of Daet, Camarines Norte [2PM Oct 29: 14.6°N 122.5°E @ 140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Pangasinan, weakens into an STS while while traversing the landmass of Central Luzon on NW track…about 20 km SE of Alaminos, Pangasinan [2PM Oct 30: 16.0°N 120.1°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 700 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (900 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —