Typhoon NENENG (NESAT) Advisory No. 06

24-hr Outlook: TY NENENG is forecast to maintain its westward motion at a decreased forward speed of 16 km/hr in the general direction of the South China Sea. It will be well outside of the PAR by tomorrow morning. Improving weather conditions will be expected across Extreme Northern Luzon late tonight through tomorrow, as the typhoon moves farther away from the country. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern portion of the Balintang Channel (near 19.4°N 120.3°E)
• Distance 1:  106 km north-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
• Distance 2: 137 km north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
• Distance 3: 214 km west-southwest of Basco, Batanes

• None.

• Ilocos Provinces, Kalinga & Apayao including the western portions of Babuyan Island Group ~ Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Batanes-Babuyan Island Group, & Ilocos Provinces.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY MORNING: Strengthens further while outside of PAR, starts turning WSW across the South China Sea…about 395 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM Oct 17: 19.5°N 117.1°E @ 150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 2 Typhoon while maintaining its WSW track over the South China Sea in response to a new surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan)…about 444 km S of Hong Kong, China [8AM Oct 18: 18.4°N 114.2°E @ 165 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon while over the South China Sea…turns westerly towards the southern coastal waters of Hainan Island…about 217 km ESE of Sanya, Hainan, China [8AM Oct 19: 17.3°N 111.3°E @ 150 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 981 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (525 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  80 km outward from the center