Severe Tropical Storm NENENG (NESAT) Advisory No. 05

24-hr Outlook: STS NENENG is forecast to continue intensifying, and could become a Typhoon (TY) later tonight or early tomorrow morning.  It will then turn westward at a forward speed of 18 km/hr towards the South China Sea. Its intense southern rainbands will continue to spread across Northern Luzon, where flood-threatening rainfall and gusty winds of up to 80 km/hr will be felt today.  Improving weather conditions will be expected tomorrow, as the storm moves farther away from the area. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the eastern shoreline of Calayan Island, Cagayan (near 19.3°N 121.6°E)
• Distance 1:  105 km north of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 136 km south-southwest of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 3: 114 km northeast of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte

• Now making a minor landfall over Calayan Island, Cagayan, with a High Strike Probability of 100%.

• Cagayan Valley including Batanes & Babuyan Group, Ilocos Provinces, Northern Portions of Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) ~ Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Calayan Island ~ Today.

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Northern Cagayan, Batanes-Babuyan Island Group, & Ilocos Provinces.

+Waves of 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further as it is about to move out of the PAR, moving westward…some 149 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2PM Oct 16: 19.4°N 119.7°E @ 110 kph]. Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Category 1 Typhoon while outside of PAR, starts to turn WSW across the South China Sea…about 305 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM Oct 17: 19.6°N 118.1°E @ 120 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 2 Typhoon while maintaing its WSW track over the South China Sea in response to a new surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan)…about 402 km SSE of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 18: 18.9°N 115.1°E @ 160 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon while over the South China Sea…turns west toward the southern coastal waters of Hainan Island…about 287 km ESE of Sanya, Hainan, China [2AM Oct 19: 17.5°N 112.1°E @ 140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 480 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (600 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  50 km outward from the center