Tropical Storm NENENG (NESAT) Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: TS NENENG is forecast to continue intensifying, becoming a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) this afternoon, while moving west-northwest across the northern coastal waters of Cagayan & Ilocos Norte, with a forward speed of 17 km/hr. Its western & southern rainbands will continue to spread across Northern Luzon, where flood-threatening rainfall and gusty winds of up to 75 km/hr will be felt today. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the coastal waters of Camiguin Island, Babuyan Group (near 18.9°N 122.5°E)
• Distance 1:  59 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 109 km northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 119 km east-southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan

• None.  However, minor landfalls are likely along the Babuyan Group of Islands today, between 12 AM to 12 PM with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Cagayan Valley including Batanes & Babuyan Group, Ilocos Provinces, Northern Portions of Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) ~ Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Northern Cagayan, Batanes-Babuyan Island Group, & Ilocos Provinces.

+Waves of 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly while moving WNW, passing over Dalupri Island…about 38 km SW of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8AM Oct 16: 19.1°N 121.2°E @ 85 kph]. Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SUNDAY EVENING: Strengthens into an STS while along the western portion of the Balintang Channel…exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 198 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [8PM Oct 16: 19.5°N 119.2°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY EVENING: Becomes a Category 2 Typhoon while outside PAR, turns WSW over the South China Sea in response to a new surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan)…about 431 km SSE of Hong Kong, China [8PM Oct 17: 19.0°N 116.1°E @ 160 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• TUESDAY EVENING: Starts to weaken while over the South China Sea as it turns west toward the southern coastal waters of Hainan Island…about 533 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [8PM Oct 18: 17.7°N 113.1°E @ 150 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 520 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 994 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (610 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (550 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —