Tropical Depression NENENG Advisory No. 01

24-hr Outlook: TD NENENG is forecast to continue intensifying over the Philippine Sea while moving west towards Extreme Northern Luzon, with an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr. Its western rainbands will begin to spread across Extreme Northern Luzon later this morning, where flood-threatening rainfall and gusty winds of up to 30-65 km/hr will be felt. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.1°N 128.3°E)
• Distance 1:  650 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 666 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 3: 718 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan

• None. However, a possible minor landfalls are likely along the Babuyan Group of Islands Tomorrow, between 8 AM to 2 PM Sunday (Oct 16) with High Strike Probability of 80 to 90%.

• Cagayan Valley including Batanes & Babuyan Group, Ilocos Provinces, Northern Portions of Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) ~ beginning late Today through Sunday (Oct 16).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY EVENING: Intensifies further while moving faster WSW to West…enters the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel…about 185 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM Oct 15: 18.7°N 123.9°E @ 55 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SUNDAY EVENING: Turns WNW-ward while traversing the Babuyan Group of Islands…becomes a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 120 km WNW of Calayan, Cagayan [8PM Oct 16: 19.9°N 120.5°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• MONDAY EVENING: Exits the northwest border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while maintaining its strength, turns southwestward thereafter while over the South China Sea…about 312 km WNW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [8PM Oct 17: 19.9°N 118.2°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (535 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —