Typhoon KARDING (NORU) Advisory No. 11

24-hr Outlook: TY KARDING is forecast to resume its westerly course at a decreased forward speed of 22 km/hr. The core of this typhoon will pass just to the north of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal around noontime today, before moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this evening.

Meanwhile, this typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing scattered to occasional rains and thunderstorms across CaLaBaRZon, Metro Manila, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Kalayaan Island Group, Sulu Archipelago, Western Visayas and Western Mindanao today through tomorrow, Tuesday (Sept 27).

• Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of San Jose, Tarlac (near 15.5°N 120.4°E)
• Distance 1: 21 km west of Tarlac City, Tarlac
• Distance 2: 44 km north-northwest of Angeles City, Pampanga
• Distance 3: 125 km northwest of Metro Manila

• N/A. System now over land.

• Central Luzon (including Metro Manila) & the Southern Portions of Northern Luzon – today until 8AM.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Tarlac & Zambales  – today until 5AM.

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Western Luzon.

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY EVENING: Exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while re-intensifying over the West Philippine Sea…about 428 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Sept 26: 15.8°N 116.0°E @ 140 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH 
• TUESDAY EVENING: Re-intensifies back to Category 3 status while moving westward across the South China Sea, approaching the eastern coast of. Vietnam…about 828 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [8PM Sept 27: 15.6°N 110.9°E @ 185 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 950 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (280 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  60 km outward from the center