Super Typhoon KARDING (NORU) Advisory No. 08

Residents living along the path of this howler must be fully prepared as landfall is only about 12 hours away. Please take all necessary precautions. 

24-hr Outlook: STY KARDING is forecast to continue intensifying becoming a Category 5 system with 1-min sustained winds of 270 km/hr this afternoon. The howler is expected to move westward at a decreased forward speed of 18 km/hr. Its core (eye + eyewall) will pass over or very close to the Polillo Island Group around sunset today, and make landfall along the Northern Quezon-Aurora Boundary, between 8-10PM tonight. Then between 10PM to 2AM early tomorrow morning, the core of KARDING is forecast to cross the provinces of Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Northern Bulacan, Northern Pampanga, Tarlac, Southern Pangasinan, & Zambales. At around 2AM tomorrow, it is forecast to be in the vicinity of Mabalacat and Tarlac City with decreased winds of 215 km/hr or lower. Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of CaLaBaRZon will be under the typhoon’s inner bands, where gusty winds of 75 to 130 km/hr will be expected at the same time during its passage. 

Meanwhile, this typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across the rest of Southern Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas and Western Mindanao beginning today through tomorrow (Sept 26).

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.1°N 124.1°E)
• Distance 1: 118 km north of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 266 km east of Infanta, Quezon
• Distance 3: 332 km east of Metro Manila

• Somewhere along the Towns of Dingalan (Aurora) & General Nakar (Quezon) – between 8 to 10 PM tonight with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Central Luzon (including Metro Manila) & the Southern Portions of Northern Luzon – beginning today until 8AM tomorrow (Sept 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Southern Aurora, Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands – beginning 2PM today.
• Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, & Zambales – beginning 11PM tonight until 6AM tomorrow morning.

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Northern Bicol, Aurora, Northern Quezon, & Isabela.

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 4 Typhoon while passing over Tarlac Province…about 8 km S of Tarlac City, Tarlac [2AM Sept 26: 15.4°N 120.6°E @ 215 kph]. Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM 
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon while moving West to WSW-ward across the West Philippine Sea. Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 558 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Sept 27: 15.6°N 114.8°E @ 185 kph].   Forecast Confidence: LOW
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Bears down the the coast of Vietnam, regains Category 4 strength…about 924 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Sept 28: 15.1°N 109.9°E @ 215 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 925 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (595 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  65 km outward from the center