Tropical Storm KARDING Advisory No. 01

24-hr Outlook: TS KARDING is forecast to intensify further and will move west-northwest slowly at a forward speed of 09 km/hr. The storm is still over the open waters of the Philippine Sea with no direct effects through tomorrow afternoon.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea (near 18.0°N 134.1°E)
• Distance 1: 1,264 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 1,247 km east of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 3: 1,312 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan

• Along Cagayan – between 10 AM to 12 PM Sunday (Sept 25) with Medium Strike Probability of 40-50%.

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further while moving slowly WNW across the eastern portion of the Philippine Sea…about 1,072 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Sept 23: 18.4°N 132.3°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Turns westward as it becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while over the central part of the Philippine Sea…about 572 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Sept 24: 17.7°N 127.5°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Cagayan-Kalinga Border as it traverses Cagayan Valley on a westerly track…about 62 km NW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [2PM Sept 25: 18.0°N 121.3°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (490 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —