Tropical Depression 99W (Pre-ROLLY) StormWatch No. 01

The small active low pressure (99W) over the Western Pacific Ocean, northwest of Guam has developed into a Tropical Depression (TD)…will be named soon locally as “ROLLY.”  This system is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Thursday morning (Oct 29) and could pose a threat to Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas this weekend.

• Location: Over the Western Pacific Ocean (near 16.4°N 140.7°E)
• Distance 1: 614 km east of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
• Distance 2: 540 km northwest of Hagatna, Guam (CNMI)
• Distance 3:  1,985 km east of Casiguran, Aurora, Philippines

• TD 99W is expected to intensify within the next 06 to 24 hours due to conducive atmospheric environment over the area, and shall a take a deep slide towards the West-Southwest as it interacts with the approach of a strong surge of Northeasterly Winds. This cyclone could become a Tropical Storm (TS) by late Wednesday or early Thursday morning…then as a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on Friday (Oct 29)…and as a Category 1 Typhoon on Saturday (Oct 31).  Kindly refer to our attached StormWatch Track for the forecast wind speeds of this cyclone.
• Current Typhoon Global Models forecast it to make landfall over the Bicol Peninsula on Saturday morning (Oct 31) with Low Strike Probability (@ 30% Forecast Confidence).
• Once this LPA becomes a Tropical Depression (TD), it will be named by PAGASA as “ROLLY.”