Tropical Depression ULYSSES (VAMCO) Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: TD ULYSSES (VAMCO) is forecast to move northwestward at a decreased forward speed of 17 km/hr, and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight. It is therefore expected to rapidly intensify, becoming a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on Tuesday afternoon.

• Location of Center: Over the Mid-Southern Part of Central Philippine Sea
• Coordinates: 12.5°N lat  130.7°E lon
• Distance 1: 658 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar
• Distance 2: 715 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 3: 822 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Over Polillo Island (Northern Quezon), between 3 to 5 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with Medium Strike Probability of 55-65%.

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches STS status while over the Central Philippine Sea…about 430 km ENE of Bato, Catanduanes [2PM Nov 10: 14.5°N 128.2°E @ 100 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly intensifies into a Category 3 Typhoon (TY) as it turns Westward across western portion of the Central Philippine Sea, passing well to the northeast of Bicol Region…about 127 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Nov 11: 15.1°N 124.6°E @ 205 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea or just along the offshore areas of Zambales, weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon…about 74 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales  [2PM Nov 12: 14.9°N 119.6°E @ 120 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (745 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (780 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center