Tropical Storm GONI (Pre-ROLLY) Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: TS GONI is forecast to rapidly become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later tonight or early tomorrow morning (Oct 30). It is expected to move westward with an increased forward speed of 21 km/hr towards northeastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea. 

• Location: Over the Western Pacific Ocean (near 16.5°N 137.0°E)
• Distance 1: 214 km east of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
• Distance 2: 1,592 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3:  1,413 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes

• Along the Aurora-Quezon Border, between 8 to 10 PM Sunday, Nov 01 – with Medium Strike Probability of 60%.

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly strengthens into an STS as it moves westward while already inside the PAR…about 972 km NE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM Oct 30: 16.5°N 132.9°E @ 100 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH 
• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies rapidly into a minimal, Caegory 1 Typhoon (TY) as it turns west-southwestward, accelerating towards the offshore areas of Northern Bicol…about 637 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Oct 31: 15.8°N 129.8°E @ 150 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the offshore areas of Northern Bicol, attains its peak intensity as a Category 3 Major Typhoon. Begins to move westward towards Central Luzon…about 197 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Nov 01: 14.6°N 125.9°E @ 195 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Intense]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (575 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Midget (220 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center.