Tropical Depression 22W (Pre-ROLLY) Advisory No. 01

24-hr Outlook: TD 22W is forecast to rapidly become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight or early tomorrow morning, and as a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) tomorrow afternoon. It shall move westward with an increased forward speed of 27 km/hr towards eastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea. 

• Location: Over the Western Pacific Ocean (near 16.5°N 139.2°E)
• Distance 1: 445 km east of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
• Distance 2: 690 km west-northwest of Hagatna, Guam (CNMI)
• Distance 3:  1,830 km east of Casiguran, Aurora, Philippines

• Over Catanduanes, between 12 to 2 AM Sunday, Nov 01 – with Medium Strike Probability of 50%.

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly strengthens into an STS as it turns west-southwestward  while already inside the PAR…about 1,265 km E of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM Oct 29: 16.2°N 133.9°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM 
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies rapidly into a Typhoon (TY) as it maintains its west-southwest track, accelerating towards Bicol Peninsula…about 643 km ENE of Bato, Catanduanes [2PM Oct 30: 15.4°N 130.0°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the East Coast of Catanduanes while attaining its peak intensity as a Category 3 Typhoon, still moving west-southwest towards Bicol Region…about 261 km E of Bato, Catanduanes [2PM Oct 31: 14.0°N 126.7°E @ 195 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Intense]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (480 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center.