Typhoon PEPITO (MAN-YI) Advisory No. 06

24-hr Outlook: The core of Typhoon PEPITO will swiftly move across the provinces of Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, and La Union late this afternoon. By this evening, it is expected to emerge over the coastal waters of La Union. Early tomorrow morning, Pepito is forecast to weaken into a Severe Tropical Storm after interacting with Luzon’s landmass as it tracks west-northwest across the West Philippine Sea. It is projected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by or before noon tomorrow.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the coastal waters of Southern Aurora  (near 15.4°N 122.4°E)
• Distance 1:  100 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
• Distance 2:  70 km NNE of Polillo Island Group 
• Distance 3:  175 km ENE of Metro Manila

• Over SOUTHERN AURORA between 2 to 4 PM today (Nov 17) ~ with High Strike Probability of >90% .

• Southern portion of Northern Luzon and Northern portion of Central Luzon ~ today.
• For detailed areas of the affected places, check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Aurora ~ today.

• Coastal, lakes and beachfront areas of Eastern Luzon.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Southern Aurora, weakens to a Category 3 typhoon…about 10 km NW of Baler, Aurora [2PM Nov 17: 15.8°N 121.5°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea…about 160 km W of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur  [2AM Nov 18: 17.5°N 118.9°E @ 110-140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves westward across the South China Sea…about 595 km SSW of Hong Kong  [2AM Nov 19: 17.7°N 111.4°E @ 65-85 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 200 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  941 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (415 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (560 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  140 km outward from the center.