Super Typhoon PEPITO (MAN-YI) Advisory No. 04

36-hr Outlook: The core of Super Typhoon PEPITO is expected to intensify further as it approaches Lagonoy Gulf later this afternoon. It is forecast to make landfall over Catanduanes tonight between 9:00 and 11:00 PM. The system will then traverse the coastal areas or waters of Caramoan, Garchitorena, and Siruma early tomorrow morning, from midnight to the early hours of Sunday (November 17).

Around 2:00 AM, the core is projected to pass approximately 70 to 100 km NNE of Naga City and will move near the Calaguas Islands in Camarines Norte between 5:00 and 8:00 AM. By Sunday afternoon, Pepito is expected to cross the southern portions of Northern Luzon after making landfall over Southern Aurora.

• Location of Center/Eye: Approaching Albay Gulf or near the coastal waters of Northern Samar (near 12.5°N 126.7°E)
• Distance 1:  225 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar
• Distance 2:  295 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes 
• Distance 3:  400 km ESE of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Over CATANDUANES between 9 to 11 PM tonight (Nov 16) ~ with High Strike Probability of >90% .

• Northern Samar, Bicol Mainland, & Polillo Island ~ beginning Saturday Afternoon (Nov 16).
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Catanduanes & Partido District (Camarines Sur) ~ beginning 1 PM Saturday until 11 AM Sunday (Nov 17).

• Coastal, lakes and beachfront areas of Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, and Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Island.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly after making landfall over Catanduanes, passing over the coastal waters of Garchitorena-Caramoan Area…about 100 km NE of Naga City, Camarines Sur [2AM Nov 17: 14.3°N 123.8°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 2 as it is about to make landfall over Southern Aurora…about 30 km ESE of Baler, Aurora  [2PM Nov 17: 15.6°N 121.8°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
  
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING:  Weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm after crossing the rugged terrain of the southern portions Northern Luzon…about 135 km WSW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur  [2AM Nov 18: 17.2°N 119.2°E @ 110-140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves westward across the South China Sea…about 460 km SSE of Hong Kong  [2AM Nov 19: 18.5°N 115.5°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  952 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (505 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (670 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  75 km outward from the center.