Typhoon PEPITO (MAN-YI) Advisory No. 03

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon PEPITO is expected to continue tracking west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. Its compact core is projected to pass very close to or make landfall over Northern Catanduanes on or before midnight on Saturday. It will then traverse the coastal waters of Partido District in Camarines Sur, moving just north of Caramoan by 2:00 AM on Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, PEPITO is expected to begin weakening as it approaches the coastal areas of Southern Aurora.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.2°N 129.8°E)
• Distance 1:  445 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
• Distance 2:  480 km E of Borongan City, Eastern Samar 
• Distance 3:  765 km ESE of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Over CATANDUANES between 11 PM tomorrow to 1 AM Sunday (Nov 17) ~ with High Strike Probability of >90% .

• Northern Samar, Bicol Mainland, & Polillo Island ~ beginning Saturday Afternoon (Nov 16).
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Catanduanes & Partido District (Camarines Sur) ~ beginning 1 PM Saturday until 11 AM Sunday (Nov 17).

• Coastal, lakes and beachfront areas of Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, and Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Island.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly intensified into Near-Super Typhoon strength as it approaches the coastal waters of Catanduanes…about 170 km NE of Catarman, Northern Samar [2PM Nov 16: 13.3°N 125.9°E @ 230-280 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 3 as it is about to cross the southern part of Northern Luzon…about 75 km SSE of Casiguran, Aurora  [2PM Nov 17: 15.6°N 122.3°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
  
• MONDAY AFTERNOON:  Exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) after quickly crossing Central Luzon. Weakens to a Category 1 typhoon…about 295 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur  [2PM Nov 18: 18.2°N 117.7°E @ 120-150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  972 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (525 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (590 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  75 km outward from the center.