Tropical Depression PAENG Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: TD PAENG is forecast to slowly intensify over the Central Philippine Sea while turning west-northwest, with a decreased forward speed of 11 km/hr. It is likely to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight or early tomorrow morning (Friday). 

The depression’s Trough together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and Shear Line will continue to bring windy conditions (30-60 kph) across Northern & Eastern Luzon, becoming wet and rainy with severe thunderstorms & gusty winds across Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Visayas, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, and Northeastern Mindanao today.  The risk of floods and landslides is currently at medium to high. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 12.4°N 131.3°E)
• Distance 1:  725 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar
• Distance 2: 780 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 3: 890 km east-southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Along Aurora on Sunday morning (Oct 30), between 9 to 11 AM with Low Strike Probability of 35%.

• Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas ~ beginning late Friday evening (Oct 28).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a TS while moving WNW across the Central Philippine Sea…about 555 km E of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM Oct 28: 13.1°N 129.3°E @ 65 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it approaches the coastal waters of Catanduanes & Camarines Provinces…about 175 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM Oct 29: 14.2°N 125.7°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching landfall area as it enters the coastal waters of Aurora Province…intensifies into a Category 1 Typhoon…about 85 km SE of Baler, Aurora [2AM Oct 30: 15.3°N 122.2°E @ 130 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (780 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —