Typhoon OFEL (USAGI) Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: Typhoon OFEL is expected to approach the coastal waters of Palanan, Isabela, as a Super Typhoon this morning. Later this afternoon, the core of Ofel is forecast to make landfall over or very near Gonzaga and Santa Ana in Northern Cagayan, before moving over the Balintang Channel near Babuyan Island. Residents in these areas should remain alert for updates, as worsening conditions could bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and hazardous seas.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.4°N 124.6°E)
• Distance 1:  245 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2:  300 km NNE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  345 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan

• Over EASTERN ISABELA and/or NORTHERN CAGAYAN by Thursday afternoon (Nov 14), with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Northern & Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela, Apayao, & Northern Kalinga ~ Starting this morning, Thursday, Nov 14.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Eastern Isabela and Northern Cagayan ~ beginning 9 AM today until the evening.

• Coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley Region.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY EVENING: Emerges over the Balintang Channel, or in the vicinity of Babuyan Group of Islands incl. Calayan Island. Still a Super Typhoon…about 55 km SSE of Calayan Island, Cagayan. [8PM Nov 14: 18.9°N 121.7°E @ 240-295 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• FRIDAY EVENING:  Approaching Orchid Island/Southern Taiwan as a weakening Category 2 typhoon…about 105 km S of Taitung, Taiwan  [8PM Nov 15: 21.8°N 121.1°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  949 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (495 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (560 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  65 km outward from the center.