Typhoon OFEL (USAGI) Advisory No. 03

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon OFEL is expected to continue intensifying as it approaches the coastal waters of Eastern Isabela on Thursday morning. It is forecast to make landfall along the eastern or northern coast of Cagayan in the afternoon. By Thursday evening, the core of Ofel will pass over or very close to Aparri, Cagayan, before emerging over the Balintang Channel shortly afterward. On Friday morning, the typhoon is expected to weaken slightly as it moves across the Luzon Strait, just west of Batanes. Residents in these areas should remain alert for updates, as worsening conditions could bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and hazardous seas.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.6°N 126.7°E)
• Distance 1:  325 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  435 km ENE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  495 km E of Casiguran, Aurora

• Over EASTERN ISABELA and NORTHERN CAGAYAN by Thursday afternoon (Nov 14), with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Northern & Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela, Apayao, & Northern Kalinga ~ Starts tomorrow, Thursday, Nov 14.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Eastern Isabela and Northern Cagayan ~ beginning 11 AM tomorrow until the evening.

• Coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley Region.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY MORNING: Almost a Category 3 typhoon as it moves across the coastal waters of Isabela…about 80 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela [8AM Nov 14: 17.2°N 123.1°E @ 175-215 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY MORNING:  Emerges over the Balintang and Bashi Channels after crossing Northern Cagayan…about 150 km NW of Calayan Island, Cagayan  [8AM Nov 15: 20.3°N 120.5°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM  
• SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm  as it turns northward slowly over the southern tip of Taiwan…about 120 km WNW of Itbayat, Batanes  [8AM Nov 16: 21.9°N 120.8°E @ 110-140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  985 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (430 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (560 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  65 km outward from the center.