Severe Tropical Storm OFEL (USAGI) Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: Tropical Storm OFEL is expected to intensify into a Typhoon within the next few hours and maintain its fast pace throughout the forecast period. The core of Ofel is projected to pass very close to or make landfall over Gonzaga or Santa Ana, Cagayan, by early Thursday evening, reaching a peak intensity of 175 km/h. Residents in these areas should stay alert for updates, as worsening conditions may bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and hazardous seas.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.7°N 129.7°E)
• Distance 1:  590 km ENE of Bato, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  710 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  830 km E of Casiguran, Aurora

• Over NORTHERN CAGAYAN by late Saturday afternoon or evening (Nov 14), with Medium Strike Probability of 80 to 90%.

• Northern & Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela, Apayao, & Northern Kalinga ~ Starts Thursday, Nov 14.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY EVENING: Becomes a Typhoon as it maintains its fast, WNW track across the Central Philippine Sea…about 270 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes [8PM Nov 13: 16.2°N 125.3°E @ 150-185 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY EVENING:  Emerges over the coastal waters of Aparri, Cagayan, after it crossed Northern Cagayan Mainland…about 25 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan  [8PM Nov 14: 18.5°N 121.8°E @ 175-215 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM  
• FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Category 2 typhoon, turns northward along the Luzon Strait…about 120 km WNW of Itbayat, Batanes  [8PM Nov 15: 21.0°N 120.7°E @ 160-195 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  988 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (500 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (560 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  45 km outward from the center.