Tropical Storm OFEL (USAGI) Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: Tropical Storm OFEL is expected to continue moving rapidly west-northwest over the next two days and could intensify quickly into a typhoon later tonight. By tomorrow evening, Wednesday, November 13, OFEL is forecast to pass approximately 400 km northeast of Bicol Region with zero effects, and could reach Category 3 strength by Thursday morning as it approaches the coastal waters of northern Cagayan. Residents in these areas should remain alert for updates, as intensifying conditions may bring significant rainfall, strong winds, and hazardous seas.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the eastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.9°N 132.5°E)
• Distance 1:  900 km E of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  1,005 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  1,145 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora

• Over NORTHERN CAGAYAN by late Saturday afternoon or evening (Nov 14), with Medium Strike Probability of 60 to 70%.

• Northern & Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela, Apayao, & Northern Kalinga ~ Starts Thursday, Nov 14.
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon as it maintains its fast, WNW track acros the Central Philippine Sea…about 445 km ENE of Bato, Catanduanes [8AM Nov 13: 15.0°N 128.2°E @ 150-185 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY MORNING: Attains Category 3 status as it approaches the coastal waters of Eastern Isabela & Northern Cagayan…about 130 km E of Palanan, Isabela  [8AM Nov 14: 17.1°N 123.6°E @ 185-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH  
• FRIDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it moves NW across the Luzon Strait…about 110 km NNW of Calayan Island, Cagayan  [8AM Nov 15: 20.2°N 121.0°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  991 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Small (485 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Small (385 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.