Severe Tropical Storm ODETTE (RAI) Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: STS ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to maintain its WNW track across the northernmost portion of the South Philippine Sea through early Thursday morning with a forward speed of 21 kph.  Forecast wind speed is expected to increase to 150 kph.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northeastern portion of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.8°N 132.8°E)
• Distance 1: 719 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
• Distance 2: 751 km east of Siargao Island, Surigao Del Norte
• Distance 3: 887 km east of Maasin City, Southern Leyte

• Landfall 01:  Over Dinagat Island, between 5 to 6 PM Tomorrow – with High Strike Probability of >90%. 
• Landfall 02:  Over Southern Leyte, between 6 to 8 PM Tomorrow – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 03:  Over Metro Cebu, between 11 PM Tomorrow to 1 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 04:  Over Central -Northern Negros, between 2 to 3 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 05:  Over Guimaras-Southern Tip of Panay, between 4 to 8 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 06:  Over Roxas-El Nido Area, Palawan, between 7 to 9 PM  Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Visayas, Romblon, Bicol Region, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Zamboanga Del Norte – beginning Thursday (Dec 16) until Friday Evening (Dec 17).
• Mindoro, Palawan, Sulu Archipelago – beginning Friday (Dec 17) until Saturday Evening (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Surigao Del Norte, Siargao, Dinagat, Southern Tip of Samar, Leyte – beginning Tomorrow Afternoon until Evening (Dec 16).
• Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Central & Southern Panay – beginning Tomorrow Evening until Fri Morning (Dec 17).
• Cuyo-Pamalican Area – beginning Friday Morning until Evening (Dec 17).
• Northern Palawan including Calamian Group – beginning Friday Afternoon (Dec 17) until Early Saturday Morning (Dec 18).

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Eastern and Northern Mindanao, Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, Southern Bicol, & MiMaRoPa.

+Waves of 3-5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 1 Typhoon while moving WNW across the northern portion of the South Philippine Sea…about 308 km ENE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Dec 16: 9.7°N 128.9°E @ 150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Negros Occidental as a Category 2 Typhoon while moving westward…about 13 km ENE of Canlaon City, Negros Oriental [2AM Dec 17: 10.4°N 123.3°E @ 160 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the west coast of Northern Palawan, intensifies further as it heads over the West Philippine Sea…about 104 km NW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 18: 10.7°N 118.2°E @ 165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (760 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (495 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 160 km outward from the center