Severe Tropical Storm ODETTE (RAI) Advisory No. 01

24-hr Outlook: STS ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to maintain its WNW track across the northeastern portion of the South Philippine Sea through tomorrow, Wednesday afternoon with a decreased forward speed of 19 kph.  It is expected to become a Typhoon by early tomorrow morning.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the easternmost portion of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.1°N 135.0°E)
• Distance 1: 959 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
• Distance 2: 1,003 km east of Siargao Island, Surigao Del Norte
• Distance 3: 1,140 km east of Maasin City, Southern Leyte

• Landfall 01:  Over Siargao Island, between 8 to 9 PM Thu, Dec 16 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%. 
• Landfall 02:  Over Dinagat Island, between 10 to 11 PM Thu, Dec 16 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%. 
• Landfall 03:  Over Southern Leyte, between 1 to 2 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
• Landfall 04:  Over Metro Cebu, between 7 to 8 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
• Landfall 05:  Over Central Negros, between 10 to 11 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
• Landfall 06:  Over Guimaras, between 12 to 1 PM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
• Landfall 07:  Over El Nido, Palawan, between 4 to 5 AM  Sat, Dec 18 – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Visayas, Romblon, Bicol Region, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Zamboanga Del Norte – beginning Thursday (Dec 16) until Friday Evening (Dec 17).
• Mindoro, Palawan, Sulu Archipelago – beginning Friday (Dec 17) until Saturday Evening (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Typhoon while moving WNW across the northern portion of the South Philippine Sea…about 594 km E of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [2PM Dec 15: 9.2°N 131.6°E @ 150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching Siargao-Dinagat Islands, strengthens into a Category 3 Typhoon…about 128 km E of Siargao Island, Surigao Del Norte [2PM Dec 16: 10.0°N 127.2°E @ 185 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the southern coast of Panay, weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon after crossing the Cebu and Negros Islands…about 38 km SW of Iloilo City, Iloilo [2PM Dec 17: 10.5°N 122.3°E @ 150 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (955 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (495 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 45 km outward from the center