SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NIKA (TORAJI) ADVISORY NO. 05  [Final]

Issued at: 10:00 PM PhT (14:00 GMT) Monday, 11 Nov 2024
Current Status & Outlook Typhoon NIKA (TORAJI) has emerged over the coast of Ilocos Sur and has weakened to a Severe Tropical Storm after crossing the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon.

*This is the final advisory on the Philippines’ 13th tropical cyclone of the 2024 Season.

24-hr Outlook: Severe Tropical Storm NIKA is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning, continuing its northwest to west-northwest track across the South China Sea. By tomorrow evening, Nika is forecasted to slow down while maintaining its northwesterly movement.

Meanwhile, one of the two tropical cyclones currently outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, located east of the Bicol Region, is expected to enter by tomorrow morning and will be locally named ‘OFEL.’ The first advisory will be released tomorrow morning (Nov 12).

Where is NIKA (TORAJI)? As of 8:00 PM PhT today, Nov 11…1200 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Along the coastal waters of Ilocos Sur (near 17.9°N 119.9°E)
  • Distance 1:  65 km NW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
  • Distance 2:  210 km NNW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
  • Distance 3:  390 km  NNW of Metro Manila
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center…Gustiness: 140 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) NW @ 26 kph, towards South China Sea.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)
  • None 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • MONDAY EVENING: Maintains its strength outside of the PAR, as it moves WNW across the South China Sea…about 375 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte  [8PM Nov 12: 19.2°N 117.2°E @ 110-140 kph]Forecast ConfidenceMEDIUM  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
  • Minimum Central Pressure:  988 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (505 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (610 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  30 km outward from the center.
Disclaimer: Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2k)

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For more info visit: (http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=TORAJI)

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Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)

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