Typhoon NIKA (TORAJI) Advisory No. 04

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon NIKA will move across the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon from this morning through the afternoon, passing over the provinces of Northern Aurora, Southern Isabela, Ifugao, Southern Mountain Province, and Ilocos Sur. By tonight, it is expected to weaken to a Severe Tropical Storm as it reaches the coastal waters of Ilocos Sur or the West Philippine Sea. NIKA is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday midday or afternoon, moving toward the South China Sea.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the coastal waters of Casiguran-Dinapigue Area (near 16.1°N 122.8°E)
• Distance 1:  80 km E of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 2:  140 km ENE of Baler, Aurora
• Distance 3:  140 km SE of Ilagan City, Isabela

• Along the Northern Aurora-Isabela Boundary between  7-9 AM today, with High Strike Probability of  100%.

• Northern Luzon (8 AM today until 8 AM tomorrow)
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northern Aurora & Eastern Isabela (beginning 5 AM until 11 AM today)

• Coastal waters and beachfront areas Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela and Aurora.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a severe tropical storm as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, west of Ilocos Sur, about to leave the PAR  [2AM Nov 12: 18.0°N 119.0°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM  
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it moves across the South China Sea…about 395 km SE of Hong Kong  [2AM Nov 13: 19.5°N 116.3°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  970 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (560 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (660 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  35 km outward from the center.