Typhoon NIKA (TORAJI) Advisory No. 03

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon NIKA is expected to cross the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon tomorrow morning through the afternoon, passing over Northern Aurora, Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, and Ilocos Sur.  By Monday evening, it will weaken to a Tropical Storm as it reaches the Ilocos Sur coast or along the West Philippine Sea. Nika will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday afternoon, heading into the South China Sea.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.5°N 124.6°E)
• Distance 1:  215 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  260 km NE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3:  280 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora

• Along Aurora-Isabela Area on Monday morning (Nov 11), with High Strike Probability of  >90%.

• Cagayan Valley Region, CAR, Nueva Ecija, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur, and Abra (beginning tomorrow to Tuesday early morning)
• In other areas for the next 2 to 3 days,  check out DOST-PAGASA Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Page  for more details

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northern Aurora & Eastern Isabela (beginning 5 AM to 11 AM Tomorrow, Nov 11)

• Coastal waters and beachfront areas Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela and Aurora.

+Waves of more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Traversing the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon after making landfall over Northern Aurora Monday morning, weakens slightly…about 40 km WNW of Santiago City, Isabela  [2PM Nov 11: 16.8°N 121.2°E @ 120-150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH  
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves WNW across the South China Sea…about 295 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte  [2PM Nov 12: 18.9°N 117.9°E @ 85-100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  985 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (540 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (560 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  80 km outward from the center.